Bear, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

373
FXUS61 KPHI 111841
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
241 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm and humid airmass will persist over the region into next
week. Several disturbances will move through the area over the
course of the week, generating scattered showers and occasional
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. A cold front
is on pace to cross through Monday night into Tuesday, with high
pressure potentially becoming more dominant later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak passing short wave trough will be responsible for isolated
showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. So far most of the
activity looks to be developing along a remnant outflow boundary
from the convection on Thursday. However, some convection may later
develop along the ridge lines west of the fall line.

Overnight, looks like with onshore flow we will once again see
either low clouds or fog overnight into the morning. Because this
marine layer is so shallow, it is not being well depicted by coarser
resolution models. Thus, favored high res models. They suggest that
this is more likely to be a low stratus than fog event. However,
given the uncertainty, kept a mention of patchy/areas of fog started
by the previous shift.

As the larger trough gets closer to our region tomorrow, more
convection is possible tomorrow afternoon. There is expected to be a
surface trough to our west tomorrow which may be the focus for
convective initiation. Thus, highest chances for storms are in the
southern Poconos, Berks Co, and Lehigh Valley, and then chances
decrease the further east you go.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Any convection remaining should dissipate rather quickly into
Saturday evening with the loss of diurnal heating. The combination
of cloud cover, light onshore flow, and the moisture rich airmass
will continue to support the potential for some low clouds/stratus
and potentially fog to develop. Lows will remain mild, mainly in the
mid 60s to low 70s.

The environment looks to become a tad more active on Sunday as there
has been a subtle uptick in PoPs (30-60%) for Sunday afternoon and
evening. An upper level trough will be moving into the Great Lakes,
allowing stronger southwesterly flow to overspread into the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast regions. Although the best forcing will be
displaced to our north and west, the atmosphere should destabilize
sufficiently with the mild temperatures and high moisture content in
place. SPC maintains the MARGINAL risk for severe weather on Sunday
over our western most counties, where best atmospheric parameters
overlap with the better forcing. Outside of the MARGINAL risk, more
in the way of garden variety storms are possible, although wouldn`t
be surprised if most areas especially towards the coast remain dry.
Highs will mainly be in the mid to upper 80s with heat indicies in
the low to mid 90s. Convection should taper off once again rather
quickly with the loss of diurnal heating into Sunday night, however
a few showers or pockets of heavy rain may make the trek into
eastern Pennsylvania. Another mild and muggy night is expected with
lows similar to those on Saturday night.

On Monday, the upper trough will move into the Eastern US but will
be weakening as it approaches. Although, the atmospheric forcing
will be closer to our area, the upper level support will not be as
strong as it will be on Sunday. This should keep the overall nature
of the potential for severe weather at bay. However, with strong
destabilization and some better forcing, shower and thunderstorm
activity will be more widespread compared to Sunday; as PoPs are in
the 60-80% range. Although, the severe weather potential does not
appear to be significant, we can`t rule out a few strong to severe
storms in the afternoon into the evening hours with the cold front
tracking across the area late Monday night. Highs will mainly be in
the 80s with lows in the 60s/70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the long term period, there is quite a bit of uncertainty with
the evolution of the pattern. The cold front that tracks through on
Monday night will slow down and virtually stall over or just south
of the region on Tuesday while washing out. With remaining surface
convergence nearby, this may cause another round of isolated showers
and thunderstorms to occur on Tuesday. By mid to late week, it does
seem that Canadian high pressure will try to take control over the
Northeast while building into the Mid-Atlantic, suppressing any
shower and thunderstorm activity further south. However, considering
it is mid-July after all and the airmass really doesn`t change all
that much in wake of the dying front, occasional rounds of
convective showers and storms are possible each afternoon with
potentially another frontal boundary approaching on Friday.
Temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s daily, where heat indicies may reach close
to or top 100 in some spots.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through the rest of today...Prevailing VFR. Isolated TSRA will be
possible through 00Z, but aside from KMIV and KACY, coverage and
chance of direct impact is too limited to mention in the TAF at this
time.

Tonight...Starting VFR. After 06Z, similar to last night, expect low
clouds and fog to advect into the region. It seems more favorable
for a low stratus event (as compared to fog). Regardless, expect
conditions to decrease to IFR conditions. There is a small chance
(30%) that the lower conditions won`t reach as far west as KRDG and
KABE. winds are likely to be light across the area. Direction should
favor a E or SE direction, but may be variable at times.

Saturday...any lingering low clouds or fog should slowly erode
by 18Z. VFR conditions are expected. More TSRA is possible after
18Z. Highest risk for TSRA tomorrow will be at KABE and KRDG.
Winds light (5kt or less) favoring a SE direction.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...Overall, VFR conditions. However,
afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA may result in brief periods of sub-
VFR conditions daily. Sub-VFR conditions are also possible overnight
due to low clouds and fog, but uncertainty remains on this
potential, so confidence is low.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected.
Winds generally remain less than 15 kt with seas around 2-3 feet.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible daily, primarily in the
afternoon and evening hours.

Rip Currents...

For today, a southeast wind of around 10 MPH and breaking waves
of around 2-3 feet with a southeasterly swell of 3 feet at 7
seconds will result in a MODERATE risk for the Jersey Shore.
With waves of only 1-2 feet along the Delaware Beaches, a LOW
risk for rip currents is in place.

For Saturday, an easterly wind around 10 mph but with breaking
waves of only 1-2 feet and a southeasterly swell of 3 feet at 7
seconds for all beaches. Thus, a LOW risk for rip currents is in
place.

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers
and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low
tides.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/RCM
NEAR TERM...Johnson
SHORT TERM...DeSilva
LONG TERM...DeSilva
AVIATION...DeSilva/Johnson
MARINE...DeSilva/Johnson